Longhorns Go on Road to Neyland: #1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee Expert Picks (9/26)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 4:08 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-4.0
-110
55
-110u
-185
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+4.0
-105
55
-105o
+170
After a huge win over Ohio State in Austin, the Texas Longhorns took down the UTSA Roadrunners 30-6, but failed to cover the spread. Perhaps they were more worried about leaving the Lone Star State for the first time this season, as they go on the road to Knoxville this Saturday. The Tennessee Volunteers find themselves in the top 15, but can they stay in the hunt all season long? Taking down the top team in the country would certainly send the message that they are ready for the next level. Bettors certainly believe in the Vols, as the line as come down from a touchdown opener, to a flat four where it sits now. See if your thoughts align with our expert picks below. Will you tail or fade their wagers this week?
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NCAA Football Expert Insights: #1 Texas Longhorns vs. #14 Tennessee Volunteers
Josh Heupel and Tennessee host the top ranked Longhorns this weekend
Both teams sit at 3-0 on the season, but the Longhorns have a much better win in their comeback victory against then No. 1 Ohio State in Austin. But the Volunteers did go on the road and beat the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets by three touchdowns as 12.5 point favorites. Regardless, they both begin SEC play this weekend, and Tennessee certainly gets a little bit of a nod being at home. On the flip side, the Longhorns are going into a bye week, while the Volunteers host the Auburn Tigers next week.
I'm not worried about Josh Heupel's team looking ahead, this is the matchup they want to win. It's a statement game. But can their freshman quarterback out-duel someone with a last name of "Manning"?
Matchup Information – Texas vs. Tennessee – September 26
- Venue & Location: Neyland Stadium (Knoxville, TN)
- Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Kick Off: 12:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Longhorns vs. Volunteers Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 3:25 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Texas -4 (-110)
- Tennessee +4 (-110)
Moneyline
- Texas -195
- Tennessee +170
Total
- Over 55 (-115)
- Under 55 (-105)
#1 Texas vs. #14 Tennessee: NCAA Football Expert Picks
Hollywod Smother has nearly 200 rushing yards in just three games for the Longhorns
Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction: Texas Wins, Tennessee Covers, Over 55
Best Bets: Hollywood Smothers Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline
I'll be rooting for Tennessee as I have a Longhorns Win Total under ticket, and I need to steal one after the Buckeyes didn't come through. However, I'll back the Texas running back to get at least 56 yards, and I do like this up to 60+ for plus money. I actually saw 49.5 on Wednesday, and should've pressed the button, but I still think the number is playable, do your shopping as always.
Smothers is clearly the lead back for Steve Sarkisian. Despite splitting carries with Raleek Brown against Texas State and UTSA, at home against the top team in the country, Smothers had 21 rush attempts, his counter part with only 10 touches. I am not worried about Brown vulturing opportunities in this game, Smothers will get plenty of the pigskin. He's running for 4.8 yards per carry so far this year, after 6.4 and 5.9 in consecutive seasons at NC State. And he faces a Volunteer's defense that isn't all that.
Against Furman, Tennessee allowed their running back to go for 113 yards and a touchdown on just eight touches. Three separate players had rushes of 34, 20 and 17 yards. Things weren't any different against Georgia Tech. Justice Haynes had 81 yards on 14 carries and TD, including a 20 yard rush. Plus their backup running back ran for 6.7 yards per carry.
If the Longhorns control and win this game like the books think, Smothers should have no problem clearing this line and getting 60+ yards. He has cleared this number in two of three this year, going for 54 yards last week on just 10 carries. Give him 15 touches and we should cash.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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