Thursday Night at Lambeau Field: Falcons vs. Packers — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/24)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 10:08 am ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+5.0
-110
43
-105u
+206
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-4.5
-110
43
-110o
-238
Last week the question was can the Green Bay Packers bounce back? They did, kind of. This week, on a short week; they host the Atlanta Falcons for their first game of the season at the historic Lambeau Field in Green Bay Wisconsin.
Every game played on this field feels special, but the atmosphere in Green Bay on primetime for the home opener is going to be out of this world.
Let's jump right into this big Thurday Night game.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Date: Thursday, September 24th, 2026
- Kickoff: 5:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. (2025: 3-6; 220.2 YPG | 9 TD | 3 INT)
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (2025: 9-5-1; 225.4 YPG | 23 TD | 6 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
RUN JORDAN! RUN
If you enjoyed watched the Packers OL run screaming last year, you're having a great time this season. The Green Bay Packers are 1-1, Jordan Love has thrown for 532 yards, 4 touchdowns and just 1 interception. All this with no signs of an actual OL in Green Bay.
Green Bay's OL ranks third last in pass blocking grade (via PFF), they've given up a 30% pressure rate over the first two weeks and last week they lost their top dog; Zach Bako-Bewele.
Jordan Love's been pressured on 46% of his dropbacks this year, he's lost his starting LG, his starting RT and this week they play a Falcons defense that ranks 3rd in pressure rate through two weeks.
Atlanta has the 2nd best pass rush win rate so far this year, 3rd in pressure rate and they've done while blitzing at a bottom-5 rate in the NFL. The Falcons know how to bring pressure and it's going to be on the Packers to be able to stop that.
If Green Bay can give Love just a little time in the pocket, we've seen how good he can be. Love's completing 64% of his passes from a clean pocket this year, resulting in 347 total yards, 4 touchdowns and a passer rating of 118.3. They just need to keep him off the grass.
Defense and Special Teams are the two reasons the Packers have even a singular win.
Green Bay is tied for the 2nd most sacks on the year, with Lukas Van Ness recording 3 of the team's 7 sacks this year. On special teams it was Sky Moore saving the day, out-gaining the Packers' offense on just kick-off and punt returns.
Just let Jordan cook.
New QB, who this?
The Atlanta Falcons have lost both of their first two games. The team's coming off a blowout loss to the Carolina Panther, but on a short week the team welcomes back their (theoretical) starter.
Michael Penix Jr. is back for the Falcons and slated to start his first game since the second week of November last year. This will be Atlanta's third different QB under center this year and it's only Week 3.
Atlanta's experiencing a ton of growing pains under new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski and as always, most of that pain's coming from the QB spot. The Falcons have been down to their third string QB, Cooper Rush so it's hard to evaluate what they look like, but with Penix back under center; everything changes.
While Penix is definitely an upgrade, his time in the NFL hasn't included a ton of success. He's won just 4 of his 12 career starts, he went 3-6 last year as the team's starter and the offense doesn't look that much better.
With Penix under center last year, the team averaged 20.6 points per game but 21.0 points per game without him. The Falcons went 3-6 with him under center and 5-3 without him.
The biggest difference comes with the underlying metrics, the EPA/play (estimated points added) and the team's overall offense. With Penix the team put up 361.5 yards of total offense per game and the biggest difference was through the air.
Penix gives the Falcons the best chance to win and the biggest difference this year is the guy on the sideline; Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski has undefeated on Thursday Night Football and even got his first career win here on Thursday night.
Stefanski's 0-2 with his third string QB, now on a short week he gets his starter back.
Thursday Night's Best Bets
Drake London Anytime Touchdown (+195) | Lucky Rebel
As much as it pains me to say this, the Packers won't be shutting out the Falcons. The defense has been good, but with Penix back under center and Stefanski on the sidelines, I'm sure we're in for some fun stuff from Atlanta.
Penix and London's connection is undeniable and while you can see it on the field, the underlying stats say the same thing. With Penix on the field last year, London saw a 34% target share, 86% route share and average 0.33 targets per route run.
Now let's look at the numbers with Penix off the field. His route share drops to 32%, target share to 9% and he averages 0.244 targets per route run. It gets even crazier in the redzone.
London sees a 38% target share in the redzone with Penix on the field, versus 9.7% when he's off the field. London's also scored 9 touchdowns in 14 career games with Penix and they've only played 14 games together.
Lastly, the Packers have given up touchdowns to the opposing WR1 in back to back weeks, with the way Penix funnels the ball to London; I love him to get his first of the season this week.
Jordan Love o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-110) | Lucky Rebel
If you're going to give me Jordan Love for two passing touchdowns at this price again, I'm going to take it. Despite all the questions about this OL, Love has been elite. He's thrown for over 500 yards through two games, he's got 2 passing touchdowns in both games this season and the Packers have zero run game.
Head Coach Matt LaFleur told us all summer the plan this year was to 'let Jordan cook' and we've yet to see that. Green Bay continues to make big plays and after starting the year with back to back road games; this offense feels ready to blow in the home opener.
Love's cleared this line in 5 of his last 7 games overall, 5 of 5 if you exclude the two games he played less than 3 quarters. In those 5 games, Love threw 16 total touchdown passes and 4 of the 5 games came on the road.
Lastly, in Love's last 5 (healthy) primetime games, he's thrown 12 touchdowns and cleared this line in 4/5.
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