Geno & The Jets Head to Motor City: Jets vs. Lions — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/27)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Thu Sep 24, 2026, 10:30 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+6.5
100
47.5
-110u
+250
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-6.5
-110
47
-105o
-290
If I told you after two weeks only one team in the NFC North was undefeated, I'm sure you'd guess the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, the team's coming home after a loss to the Buffalo Bills and will now host the New York Jets at Ford Field.
The Lions offense looks potent and the Jets are the Jets. Yet, this spread sits just below a touchdown towards the home team. Feels like things could get weird this week so let's jump straight into this matchup.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
Check out the Best USA Sportsbooks here!
Matchup Information
- Location: Ford Field; Detroit, Michigan
- Date: Sunday, September 27th, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- New York Jets: Geno Smith (2025: 2-13; 201.7 YPG | 19 TD | 17 INT)
- Detroit Lions: Jared Goff (2025: 9-8; 268.5 YPG | 34 TD | 8 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Where's the D in Detroit?
The Detroit Lions once again have one of the best offenses in football. They've put up 30+ points in back to back weeks, they've scored 8 total offensive touchdowns and have a total of 724 yards of offense through two weeks.
Jared Goff has been elite. He's completed 68% of his passes, he's got 533 passing yards through the first two games, 6 touchdown passes and 0 turnovers. Goff's got a passer rating of 113.2 and he did literally everything he could do against the Bills last Thursday.
The Lions played on Thursday Night Football last week, put up 31 points at the Bills new stadium and still didn't even manage to cover the 6-point spread. The Lions gave up 41 points to Buffalo, allowing 6 total touchdowns, 3 through the air and 3 on the ground.
Detroit's defense has been incredibly bad to start the year. They've given up a total of 71 points through the first two games, giving up 6 touchdowns to Buffalo last week and 4 to the Saints in Week 1.
The problem in Detroit stems from that secondary and the plethora of injuries they've had on defense. Detroit's secondary isn't good and this year their pass rush has basically consisted of just Aidan Hutchinson.
The Lions have a 11% pass rush win rate this year but just a 9% pressure rate. When you look specifically at the DL individually you can see a majority of that pressure is coming from Hutch. He's got 16 pressures on the year with the next best being Alim McNeil with just 6.
Hutch has 3 of the team's 7 sacks this year and if the Jets can't at least limit him a little bit this week, Geno's in for a long day.
Geno & The Jets
The New York Jets travel to Detroit after dropping their home opener in ugly fashion. New York entered the 4th quarter up 14-7 against Green Bay and kicked a field goal to go up 2 scores with 11 minutes left.
The Jets would end up allowing 13 points in the 4th quarter/overtime and eventually lost on a game winning field goal by Green Bay after a quick 3-and-out to start overtime.
The game was incredibly ugly if you're a fan of the Jets, but if you watched closely there was a lot to love. New York's offensive line has been good through two weeks and despite giving up 4 sacks last week; the underlying metrics agree.
Geno Smith ranks 6th in the NFL in time to throw this year and even against an elite pass rush in the Packers, he averaged 3.1 second per dropback. The 4 sacks last week had a lot to do with the rainy weather and at least 3 came on second efforts from guys like Lukas Van Ness or Dennis Denis-Sutton.
Breece Hall and the Jets run game struggled a lot last week in the rainy weather, but in Tennesse it was a completely different story. New York had 152 rush yards against the Titans in Week 1. Breece Hall had 102 yards on the ground, he averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 2.5 yards per carry before contact.
The Lions gave up over 5 yards per carry to both James Cook and Travis Etienne. Cook averaged 4.7 yards before contact and Etienne 3.3 yards before contact.
Defensively the Jets are allowing just 15.0 points per game, they've held both of their opponents to under 200 yards of offense and they've got the third highest graded run defense.
Sunday's Best Bets
Geno Smith o224.5 Passing Yards (-105) | Lucky Rebel
It's not often I bet a Geno Smith prop, but it's not often we get to see Geno play inside a dome. Going back to 2021, Geno's started 17 games inside a dome and 53 outside ; the numbers are as follows:
- 17 Indoor Games: 245 PassY/G | 68% | 30 TD | 13 INT | 97.7 QBR
- 53 Outdoor Games: 228 PassY/G | 69% | 65 TD | 39 INT | 92.5 QBR
The numbers may not jump off the page, but Smith is just so much better when he's not being affected by the elements and when he's not on primetime.
When you filter out the primetime games, Smith's completion rate jumps to 71% and when you take out the games he spent behind that atrocious OL in Vegas last year, he averages just under 270 pass yards per game indoors.
Lastly, if you look just at his indoor games behind the Seahawks OL; he averaged 287 pass yards per game with 23 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. All these stats sound cherry picked, but now look at how bad this Lions' defense has been.
Tyler Shough through the ball 56 times against Detroit, completing 63% of his passes for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Josh Allen went 20/31 in a 10-point win with 248 yards and 3 touchdown passes against this defense.
Geno and the Jets come into this game a 6.5-point dog and should be playing most of this game from behind. Game script should work in our favor here, so instead of picking just one receiver; I'm going to the source.
Looking for More
More NFL News
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce for all my picks and sports takes you didn't ask for! Follow Betting News on 'X' and Twitch and catch us on stream! Betting News is also on TikTok! Follow us for more picks, and news!
Looking for a great promo for a new sportsbook? Check out our reviews of the best sportsbooks.
You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.