Monday Night Football: Falcons vs. Saints — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/5)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Mon Oct 05, 2026, 3:01 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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Happy Monday. If you're celebrating a win for your team this week, congrats. If you're mourning a loss, my condolences. However, Week 4 hasn't finished yet and whether you're happy or sad; we've got a great matchup tonight on Monday Night Football.
The New Orleans Saints will host their division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, tonight at Caesars Superdome.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Caesars Superdome; New Orleans, Louisiana
- Date: Sunday, October 5th, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr. (2025: 3-6; 220.2 YPG | 9 TD | 3 INT)
- New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough (2025: 5-4; 250.7 YPG | 10 TD | 5 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Shough the Savior?
Tyler Shough is averaging 305.7 pass yards per game this year. He's top-3 in total pass yards, he's thrown 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and it looks like Saints finally have their guy. Shough's been fantastic as a starter for the Saints and despite the 1-2 start, he's been great.
Shough's completing 68% of his passes this year and that's even more impressive when you see his 44.0 pass attempts per game. The Saints rank 7th in pass play rate, passing the ball on 66% of their offensive plays and it works for them.
New Orleans is averaging 27.0 points per game this year (10th), 382.7 total yards (9th) and they've done a great job protecting their QB. Shough's only been pressured on 34% of his dropbacks this year and that's because two of the three teams they've faced have struggled to bring pressure.
The Lions and Ravens both lack a pass rush and in both games we saw the Saints offense dominate. Last week against the Raiders, things changed. Shough was sacked just two times, but that Raiders front was wreaking havoc the entire game.
Shough was 7/14 when pressured last week, throwing for just 50 yards, 1 touchdown and an interception. On the season, Shough's completion percentage drops to 52% when under pressure, he's got 2 interceptions and a passer rating of 62.4.
Defensively, the Saints are the opposite of the Falcons. They've got a good number (7) of sacks, but the underlying metrics look horrible. The Saints rank 23rd in pressure rate, generating a pressure rate under 9% and pass rush win rate under 10%.
If the Saints can't generate pressure tonight, they might be in for a long night.
That's My Quarterback
One game with Michael Penix Jr. under center and the Atlanta Falcons' energy has completely shifted. After missing the first two weeks of the season, Penix returned for Thursday Night Football against the Green Bay Packers.
Penix threw for 256 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. More importantly though, the offense put up a season high 35 points and Drake London was finally a huge part of the game.
London caught 9 of his 10 targets for 194 yards and no touchdowns. His season high 10 targets were no surprise. His connection with Penix has been clear from the jump and it was on full display again last week.
Bijan Robinsonson ran for 194 yards, 2 touchdowns and averaged 6.7 yards per carry. Brian Robinson averaged 5.0 yards per carry and finished with 50 yards and a touchdown. The entire offense was operating on a higher level last week and energy was just different.
On the defensive side, the Falcons are a lot more middle of the pack. The team ranks 15th in points allowed (22.7), 30th in pass yards allowed, but 1st in rush yards allowed. Their defensive line has been doing a great job of generating pressure this year and they'll need more of that tonight.
Atlanta may not have the sack numbers, but the defense ranks 2nd in pressure rate, 1st in pass rush win rate and this is all while blitzing at a bottom-5 rate in the NFL. Thats a dangerous combination, even more so if your QB struggles under pressure.
Monday Night's Best Bets
Drake London 80+ Receiving Yards (+100) | Lucky Rebel
There is no one in the world happier to see Michael Penix Jr. back on the field, than Drake London. London's production with Penix under center can't be talked about enough so I'm going to do it again.
London's played 15 games with Penix in his career. In these 15 games, London has a total of 100 receptions, 1,480 receiving yards (98.7/game) and 9 touchdowns.
Going back to 2024, with Penix on the field, London's target share jumps to 35%. With Penix off the field? It drops to 20.3%. Contrast that with a guy like Kyle Pitts; who sees a significant increase in target share with Penix off the field.
Add to this the fact the Saints have allowed the 2nd most yards to x-receivers in the NFL and you can see why I love this spot. New Orleans is allowing 79.0 yards per game to outside left WRs and they've allowed a passer rating of 144.5 when targeting that side.
London's played the Saints 7 times in his career, but never with Penix under center. He's averaging 73.6 receiving yards per game in these games and averaging 9.6 targets per game.
Tonight he plays them for the first time with his QB1.
Juwan Johnson Anytime Touchdown (+240) | Lucky Rebel
The Falcons have given up 6 touchdowns through the air this year and 3 of them have gone to the TE position. Juwan Johnson has 3 touchdowns already this year and down near the redzone is where his value really begins to show.
Johnson's seeing a 14% target share on the year, but in the redzone that jumps to 32%. He's run the 2nd most routes in the redzone for the Saints and sees 0.40 targets per route run when New Orleans gets within 20.
All 3 touchdowns the Falcons have given up to TEs have come in the redzone and 2 of the 3 have come from within 10 yards. Going back to last year, Johnson leads the Saints in target share from within 10 yards and this season alone he's been targeted 5 times from inside the 10-yard line.
Only two TEs have more targets from inside the 10, Trey McBride and Sam LaPorta. Two other high powered offenses with high usage TEs that love playing in the redzone.
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