Arsenal vs. Burnley EPL Picks and Predictions: May 18, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon May 18, 2026, 11:20 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
EPL
The Gunners can smell their first English Premier League title in over two decades, yet they don't quite have it locked up. An easy win today at home over Burnley would make it very tough for Manchester City to catch them, but it would still be in the mathematical realm of possibilities. However, Arsenal has been rock solid at home, and today they face a team with absolutely nothing to play for. Let's get into our favorite EPL picks in this contest, and see if we can find some value on the board.
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Arsenal vs. Burnley EPL Betting Insights
Zian Flemming has double digit goals for Burnley this season. Could he find himself playing for someone else in the EPL next year?
With two matches remaining, Arsenal sits two points ahead of Manchester City. However, they are down a goal on differential. All this means, is that if things are tied on points, the league would go to City with the higher GD. But the Gunners are still in charge. Two wins and they seal the league title. Slip up, and they may be shooting themselves in the foot.
But they've beaten Burnley outright in the last three head to head meetings, including a 2-0 victory on the road back in November. Burnley will be relegated at the end of the year, there is nothing they can do. But do we think they even show up today? Let alone make it a competitive match? Given the fact that Arsenal is -1000 on the moneyline, the short answer would be no. Oddsmakers think this is going to be a blood bath, and I happen to agree with them.
Matchup Information – Arsenal vs. Burnley – May 18
- Venue & Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
- Date: Monday, May 18, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: USA Network
Arsenal vs. Burnley Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of May 18, 2026, at 10:46 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Arsenal -1000
- Draw +975
- Burnley +1800
Spread
- Arsenal -2.5 (+102)
- Burnley +2.5 (-122)
Total
- Over 3.5 (+125)
- Under 3.5 (-145)
Arsenal vs. Burnley EPL Picks and Predictions
Viktor Gyökeres leads the Gunners with 14 goals during his first EPL season
Best Bet: Arsenal ML/Under 3.5 (+107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Back to Ole Reliable we go. Now for the purpose of these statistics, I will be using 4.5 goals for the total. But the theory remains the same. A same game parlay of Arsenal on the moneyline, paired with the under 4.5 has hit in 57.4% of matches this season. In fact, Arsenal shuts out their opponent over 52.5% of the time as well. But those numbers get even scarier at home.
In 31 matches at Emirates Stadium, the Gunners have won and stayed under 4.5 goals in 64.5% of contests, including shutting out their visitors over 61.3% of the time. Sure, these stats are for an inflated under that we are not getting today, but the Gunners' back line is still one of the best in the entire world, and with a goal differential coming into play, look for them to focus up on the defensive side of things.
Yes, they will be aggressive, but I see this being a 3-0 shutout win for Arsenal. Enough to give them three points, and to overtake Manchester City on goal differential. Manchester City may have their hands full tomorrow by facing AFC Bournemouth on the road, and I do not see a three goal victory in their future. Therefore, look for the Gunners to dominate this match on both sides of the ball as they chase their first EPL title since 2004.
Prediction: Arsenal Wins 3-0 (+475)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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