Aston Villa vs. Liverpool EPL Picks and Predictions: May 15, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri May 15, 2026, 9:39 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
EPL
Only two matches remain for each team in the English Premier League for the 2025-26 season and two of the best kick off things off on Friday afternoon. This match could essentially be the battle for fourth place. Aston Villa and Liverpool are both tied with 59 points on the table. It is unlikely that either catch Manchester United, as they can seal third with a single point. But the Reds travel to Villa Park with the nod on goal differential, can they somehow steal three points on the road to claim their spot? Find out with our EPL picks below.
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Aston Villa vs. Liverpool EPL Betting Insights
Liverpool have not allowed 50 goals in an EPL season since 2016. They are at 48 GA with two matches remaining.
All the way back in November, these two teams played at Anfield. Liverpool had a successful shutout in a game with 26 total attempts, winning 2-0 on goals from Mo Salah and Ryan Gravenberch. Salah is listed as doubtful for this match. Even though they are on the road, Liverpool does have a clear advantage, as they hold the tiebreaker. The hosts absolutely need this victory.
And lucky for them, the Reds have struggled away from home this year. In their last eight games on the road in all competitions, Liverpool is just 2-0-6, being shutout in three of those losses. Plus, those two wins were against Everton in domestic play, and Wolverhampton in the FA Cup (immediately following a road loss to the Wolves in the EPL). They are not the Liverpool we used to know.
Matchup Information – Aston Villa vs. Liverpool – May 15
- Venue & Location: Villa Park (Birmingham, England)
- Date: Friday, May 15, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Peacock
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of May 14, 2026, at 3:38 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Aston Villa +175
- Draw +260
- Liverpool +142
Draw No Bet
- Aston Villa +104
- Liverpool -126
Total
- Over 3 (-113)
- Under 3 (-107)
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool EPL Picks and Predictions
Morgan Rogers leads Villa with five assists and ranks second on the team with nine goals, trailing only Ollie Watkins
Best Bet: Aston Villa +0.25 (-134) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Bring on the Aston Villa Asian Handicap at home! Pay the juiceman with me as our unit is split into two wagers, draw no bet (think +0), and +0.5, both priced at -134. If you'd rather put a full unit on Villa PK at plus money, be my guest. I even had thoughts of getting +140 for the -0.25. Regardless, if Villa wins we cash both bets, if they draw we push and win for a little profit. I already told you how terrible Liverpool has been on the road recently, now let's talk about the hosts.
Aston Villa is 5-0-1 in their last six matches at Villa Park, shutting out their opponent four times. Yes, the Liverpool attack is plenty powerful without Salah. But as I said above, the Reds hold the tiebreaker. If they draw on Friday, a win at home against Brentford seals their fourth place spot on the table. I see Arne Slot being slightly more conservative in this spot.
As for Villa, they will throw men forward and be aggressive, knowing they end the year at Etihad Stadium. Earning three points at home would put the pressure back on Liverpool to get the win in their final match of the season. Villa haven't beaten Liverpool in 11 straight head to head matches, but they've drawn in the last two at home. All we need is for them to do it again and we'll sneak away with some coin.
Prediction: 1-1 Draw (+625)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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