Leeds United vs. Burnley EPL Picks and Predictions: May 1, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri May 01, 2026, 11:17 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
soccer
The English Premier League is giving us a standalone match on Friday afternoon, but I'll admit, it might not be the most competitive contest. Leeds United hosts Burnley at Elland Road, and both are plenty far down on the EPL table. Burnley is being relegated. They are 14 points behind Tottenham, who is also in a relegation spot, so mathematically, even if Burnley wins all four remaining matches, they can't overtake the Spurs. As for Leeds, they are No. 15 on the table, safely out of relegation, but won't qualify for any European competitions either. Today, the two play for pride, so let's check out what our soccer analysts are betting on in this match by looking at their favorite EPL picks.
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Leeds United vs. Burnley EPL Betting Insights
Jaidon Anthony has seven goals for Burnley in the EPL this season
Back in October, these two teams went head to head, and Burley earned three points. They shutout Leeds United at home, winning 2-0. Last year in the English League Championship, Burnley upset Leeds at Elland Road, but played to a scoreless draw at home. Overall, Leeds have not beaten Burnley since January of 2022, when both teams were in the EPL.
Clearly, based on today's odds, the books think Leeds take down their visitors. The hosts are nearly a -300 favorite today at home, and for good reason. They are the better team and have been playing superior to Burnley. Plus, what do the visitors have to play for? Their stint in the EPL lasted just one season, and they are headed back down next year. All they can do is regroup and try to get promoted at the end of next year.
Matchup Information – Leeds United vs. Burnley – May 1
- Venue & Location: Elland Road (Leeds, England)
- Date: Friday, May 1, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: USA Network
Leeds United vs. Burnley Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook as of May 1, 2026, at 10:15 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus and 50 slot spins., and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Leeds United -285
- Draw +390
- Burnley +800
Spread
- Leeds United -1.5 (-101)
- Burnley +1.5 (-121)
Total
- Over 3 (+112)
- Under 3 (-136)
Leeds United vs. Burnley EPL Picks and Predictions
Joe Rodon and Leeds United host Burnley today in the EPL
Best Bet: Leeds United ML/Under 3.5 (+110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Take this same game parlay with me today. Despite losing and being shutout in their last meeting, Leeds dominated the stat sheet. They controlled nearly 70% of possession, outshot Burnley 19-4 overall and 4-3 on target, and won the corner kick battle 5-1. Everything was set up for a Leeds victory, they just couldn't find the back of the net.
Today I have faith in them taking down their opponent in a low scoring game. While Burnley's defense isn't all that, they will hold strong for as long as possible. Morale has to be low after losing four straight and six of their last seven. In fact, this team does not have a win since beating Crystal Palace over two months ago on February 11th.
Recently in the EPL, Leeds are unbeaten in five straight matches, and are coming off losing to Chelsea in the FA Cup last weekend. I see them being highly motivated to earn points down the stretch in order to build some momentum for next season, as they will be staying in the English Premier League.
Prediction: Leeds United Wins 2-0 (+575)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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