Will City Suffer Their First Loss of the Season at Villa Park? Expert Picks for Saturday’s EPL Slate

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Fri Oct 23, 2026, 8:00 pm ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

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EPL

Aston Villa logo
Today7:30 am ET
Manchester City logo

Aston Villa
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+1.0

-115

3.5

-134o

+405

Manchester City
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-0.5

-170

3.5

+115u

-156

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Another fantastic week of Champions League and Europa League football is in the books!

Now, we're shifting our attention to the weekend, which means it's time to tackle the Premier League.

Interestingly, this is one of the first weekends where only a handful of matchups really stand out to me.

However, the good news is that the sportsbooks have given us playable numbers in those games.

I've found two spots I really like, and both have the potential to produce plenty of goals.

Let's get into the plays!

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Featured Plays

Aston Villa vs. Manchester City

I absolutely love this matchup, and I think we could be in for an entertaining afternoon at Villa Park.

Two teams playing excellent attacking football, plenty of quality on the pitch, and some impressive scoring trends heading into kickoff.

What's not to like?

One thing I'll be monitoring closely is the availability of Manzambi for Aston Villa.

He's expected to undergo a fitness test before the match after missing Villa's midweek Champions League fixture against Viking.

Hopefully, the additional rest was enough for him to recover from whatever knock he's been dealing with.

Having him available would certainly be a boost for the hosts.

Meanwhile, Manchester City should have Erling Haaland back in the starting lineup.

City rested their superstar during the week, but that decision was purely precautionary.

Haaland is fully fit and expected to be available for this matchup.

That's obviously a major boost for City's attack.

However, Aston Villa have been playing some outstanding football themselves.

The hosts enter this matchup unbeaten in their last seven matches. Additionally, seven of their last eight games have produced at least three goals.

That's exactly the type of form I want when targeting an over.

Villa have been creating chances consistently, and their attack has looked dangerous against just about everyone recently.

Meanwhile, Manchester City have been involved in plenty of high-scoring matches themselves.

Their last six games have all produced at least three goals.

More importantly, the recent head-to-head history between these clubs supports another entertaining matchup.

Four of their last five meetings have finished with at least three goals.

However, there's another statistic that really caught my attention.

Unai Emery has been extremely successful against the Premier League's top-six clubs since taking over at Aston Villa.

He's recorded 13 wins, three draws, and just five losses against those opponents.

That's an impressive record.

Emery has completely transformed this Villa side into a team capable of competing with England's best.

And at Villa Park, I expect them to give Manchester City everything they can handle.

Of course, City have the attacking talent to score multiple goals against anyone.

However, Villa have shown they can create plenty of problems for elite opponents, especially in front of their home supporters.

That's why I prefer the total rather than picking a winner.

Both teams have been producing goals consistently, and neither side should be afraid to attack.

Additionally, the return of Haaland gives City another major threat inside the penalty area.

Ultimately, I expect an open match with quality chances on both ends.

I'm taking Over 3 because I like having the push protection if the game finishes with exactly three goals.

However, I wouldn't be surprised if we see four or more.

At -120, I think we're getting a very playable number.

Give me goals at Villa Park!

Play: Aston Villa vs. Manchester City Over 3 Goals (-120)

Chelsea vs. Tottenham

Will Pedro and Chelsea pick up an important three points at home today vs Spurs?

I'm going to continue backing Chelsea overs as long as the sportsbooks keep offering Over 3 at a playable price.

This team has been one of my favorite targets for goals throughout the season.

Chelsea have seen at least three goals in seven of their nine matches. Additionally, they've managed just one clean sheet all year.

Interestingly, that clean sheet came in their most recent match against Everton.

And I'll give Chelsea credit where it's due.

They looked much better defensively in that performance.

The midfield and back line were organized, aggressive, and finally looked comfortable defending inside their own half.

For the first time in a while, Chelsea looked like a team that might be figuring things out defensively.

However, I'm not ready to overreact to one strong performance.

I've said for a while that it was only a matter of time before Xabi Alonso improved this defense.

Still, I want to see that level of consistency across multiple matches before changing my approach.

Until then, I'm sticking with Chelsea overs.

And honestly, I think there's a realistic chance Chelsea clear this total themselves today.

Tottenham have been struggling throughout the season, although they have shown a few encouraging signs recently.

I thought their late equalizer against Manchester United could be a turning point.

Then, Spurs followed that performance with their first victory of the season against Coventry.

However, the win wasn't nearly as convincing as I expected.

Tottenham still looked vulnerable at times, and I wasn't particularly impressed with their overall performance.

Now, they have to travel to Stamford Bridge.

That's a difficult assignment for a Spurs side that has historically struggled in this fixture.

More importantly, Chelsea have consistently found ways to score against Tottenham.

Spurs have conceded in seven consecutive meetings with the Blues.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are averaging three goals per home match this season.

That's an incredible attacking number, especially against a Tottenham defense that hasn't inspired much confidence.

Of course, Spurs have enough individual quality to create chances themselves.

However, I think Chelsea will control large portions of this match and put the visitors under serious pressure.

The Blues have been excellent going forward at home, and I expect that attacking approach to continue.

Additionally, Tottenham's recent performances suggest they could struggle to handle Chelsea's movement and creativity in the final third.

Ultimately, I see this as a matchup where Chelsea could do most of the scoring.

If Tottenham contribute a goal, even better.

However, I don't necessarily need them to score for this over to have a realistic chance.

Chelsea have already shown they can put up big numbers at Stamford Bridge.

And until they prove they can consistently defend while controlling matches, I'm going to keep targeting their totals.

At -125, I'm happy to back another Over 3 with push protection.

I think Chelsea could make this a long afternoon for their London rivals.

Give me goals at Stamford Bridge!

Play: Chelsea vs. Tottenham Over 3 Goals (-125)

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BettingThePitch
BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

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