Elimination Night in The W — Expert Picks in the WNBA Today (9/29)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Tue Sep 29, 2026, 3:27 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
wnba
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1
-105
183.5
-110o
+100
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1
-115
183
-110u
-120
The WNBA Playoffs are officially underway and they started off with some heat. We saw the #1 seeded Minnesota Lynx drop Game 1 to the New York Liberty and tonight they go on the road, facing elimination in Round 1.
The Lynx were the only home team to be upset in Game 1 and tonight two of those four series will head on the road. The second of the two is the Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever. That series will head to Indiana tonight, with the Fever on the brink of elimination.
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Today's Best Bets
Jackie Young o11.5 A/R (+100) | Lucky Rebel
The Las Vegas Aces are absolutely rolling right now. They've won 8 straight games, including their Game 1 win over the Fever. In 5 games since the World Cup break, the Aces have won all 5 games by double digits and the team's averaging 98.1 points per game in that span.
A'ja Wilson has been great, scoring 38 points and grabbing 16 rebounds in Game 1. Jackie Young was fantastic in the series opener, scoring 21 points, dishing out 10 assists and snagging 2 rebounds in the process.
Young's been really good against the Fever, hitting this line in 4 of her last 6 games against Indiana. Young's also cleared this line in 3 straight games and when the Aces offense is doing well it's usually because both her and A'ja are leading the charge.
The Fever rank 8th in assists allowed to the guard position and Young's hit this line in 7 of her L10 road games.
A'ja Wilson o29.5 Points (+108) | Lucky Rebel
In that exact same game, I'm rolling with the one and only A'ja Wilson. Wilson had 38 in the series opener, 16 rebounds and 4 offensive rebounds. The Fever rank 11th in points allowed this year, 9th in opponent field goal percentage and 8th in opponent offensive rebound rate.
Wilson's scoring also increased significantly on the road this year. Wilson's averaging 24.7 points per game at home this year but 27.6 points per game on the road. This is while playing nearly the identical amount of minutes and games.
Wilson takes 18 shot attempts per game on the road, but more importantly she's shooting nearly 5% better (55%) on the road. this year. She played 35 minutes in a 17-point win over the Fever in Game 1, now with a chance to send the Fever home tonight; I'm expecting the same.
In last year's playoffs, Wilson averaged a playoff career high 26.8 points per game, she shot 49% from the field and she was taking nearly 21 shot attempts per game. In game Game 1, Wilson went 15/19 from the field and 6/7 from the free throw line.
Last year was the first time A'ja went into the postseason without Kelsey Plum on the roster and as the team's only high volume scorer. Young's kind of filled that role, but as we saw in Game 1 and last season; A'ja is going to see a ton of usage.
Breanna Stewart o32.5 P/R (-115) | Lucky Rebel
Breanna Stewart has been on a different planet ever since the FIBA World Cup began. She's coming off a Gold Medal with Team USA, her second career FIBA World Cup MVP Award and she's been dominating the ladies here in The W.
Stewart's averaging 28 points and 11 rebounds per game since the tournament ended and the Liberty came out and dominated the Lynx in Game 1. After going into halftime down 4, the Liberty came out and held the Lynx to just 31 points in the second half.
Stewart scored 18 of her 34 points in the second half and the Liberty would end up winning the game by 16 points. She lead all players in rebounds with 12 rebounds, just 1 coming on the offensive glass.
Stewart's cleared this line in 3 of 4 games against the Lynx this year and tonight with a chance to eliminate the #1 overall seed; I'm expecting her experience to shine.
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