Call Me When September Ends — Expert Picks in the MLB Today (9/25)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Fri Sep 25, 2026, 3:56 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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7.5
-105o
-300
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7.5
-115u
+265
With the MLB's regular season coming to a close, we've only got so many opportunities left bet on a few dingers.
Offense dries up in the postseason and pitchers become more dominant. That coupled with the stark change in weather and you can see why we've got to take advantage while we've got a few games left.
I'm locked in on two hitters tonight, let's talk about it.
For more picks in the MLB, take a look at the Betting News Picks Engine and for more information on how to bet baseball; take a look at our MLB Betting Guide.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 21-41; +28.2 units
Today's Dingers
Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+265) | Lucky Rebel
One of the few teams still fighting for their lives to get into the playoffs, the Houston Astros. The Astros and The Rangers both come into this final stretch of games, fighting for their division crown and a birth in this year's postseason.
Both teams sit at 79-80 on the year, but the Astros hold the tie-breaker and because of that the Rangers will need to finish with more wins. The problem is the Astros are out at Sutter Health Park taking on the lowly Athletics to finish out the year.
It's 76F at Sutter Health Park today, winds are blowing out at close to 12 mph and Jacob Lopez is set to take mound for the Athletics. Lopez has a 5.79 ERA this year, he's giving up 1.7 HR/9 and he's allowed 22 home total home runs on the year.
Yodan Alvarez is hitting .315 on the season, he's got 41 home runs and a .600 SLG. Against lefties this year, Yordan's hitting .270, with 10 home runs, a 48% HH and 16% BRL. Over the last 21 days, Yordan's got a 19% BRL, 67% HH and 33% flyball rate.
Lopez's pitch mix consists mainly of three pitches, a 4-seam fastball, a slider and a cutter. Yordan's hitting .315 against these 3 pitches with 23 home runs, a .557 xwOBA, 19% BRL, 50% HH and 32% HR/flyball rate.
Season on the line and in one of the most hitter friendly ballparks in the league. Give me Yordan.
Max Muncy Home Run (+440) | Lucky Rebel
Max Muncy has hit 30+ home runs 4 times in his career. All 4 have come with the Dodgers and this year he's just 1 home run shy of doing it for a 5th time. The Dodgers have 3 games left in the season and all 3 will come here in San Francisco.
Muncy's hit 11 home runs in this ballpark, he's hitting .270 across 48 games and he's got a .547 SLG. It's chilly tonight in the Bay and usually that's not the best for home runs. That being said, winds are blowing out toward center field at about 16 mph and that should help the ball travel a few extra feet.
Muncy's hitting .253 on the year, he's got 29 home runs, a 14% BRL and a 44% HH. He's hit 22 of his 29 home runs against right handed pitching and tonight on the bump for the Giants is Yunior Marte; a 23-year old making just his 3rd career start.
Marte's pitch mix consists of basically two pitches; a fastball and a slider. Muncy's hit 16 home runs against these two pitches, he's batting .288 with a .605 SLG and 37% HR/flyball rate. Against these two pitches, his HH jumps to 57% with a 16% BRL.
Muncy's chasing 30 and outside of Dodger Stadium, this might be the best ballpark for it to happen.
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