Down to the Wire: Sunday Expert Picks in the MLB

TonesTakes

Written by: TonesTakes

Published: Sun Sep 27, 2026, 8:27 am ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

MLB Futures Betting Guide cover (Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez)

mlb

Houston Astros logo
Live
Athletics logo

Houston Astros
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-1.5

-125

10.0

-110o

-200

Athletics
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+1.5

105

10.0

-110u

+175

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

We broke even last night so YTD remains at +22.23 (48-32). It's the final day of the regular season and there are still playoff spots to be determined. I love how all the games on the slate start at 3PM. I am targeting two very important games for my Best Bets, the Houston Astros vs the Athletics and the Texas Rangers vs the Minnesota Twins. Both teams are currently tied atop the American league west with the division crown being the only path to the postseason for both, with the Houston Astros hold the tiebreaker. Before we dive in, if you are looking for more information on how to bet baseball; take a look at our MLB Betting Guide.

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Houston Astros vs Athletics

Isaac Paredes

Houston Astros vs Athletics Pitching Matchup

  • Houston Astros (80-81) RHP Peter Lambert (8-10, 3.87 ERA/1.26 WHIP)
  • Athletics (64-97) RHP Seth Johnson (1-0, 6.19 ERA/1.69 WHIP)

Best Bet: Houston Astros Team Total Over 5.5 +100 Lucky Rebel

After dropping Game 1 of the series, the Astros rebounded in a major way last night as they pummeled the A's by a 13-2 score. Another Houston win today would grant them the American league West title. Houston's chances are very good as the Athletics are going with a bullpen game to end a disappointing season. The A's bullpen owns a ERA of 5.36, which is the worst in major league baseball. I'd p[refer to get better odds on a Team Total of 5.5 but I'll ride with that today, at even money.

Best Bet: Isaac Paredes Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 Lucky Rebel

Houston third baseman Isaac Paredes has had a solid season. He is hitting .265 with 25 home runs, 27 doubles and 1 triple. Paredes has had a solid month of September hitting .301 with 8 home runs and 4 doubles. He's cleared this mark in 6 of his last 8 games and should plenty of opportunities against this taxed bullpen of the Athletics.

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Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins

Cory Seager

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Pitching Matchup

  • Texas Rangers (80-81) LHP Mackenzie Gore (8-11, 4.59 ERA/1.33 WHIP)
  • Minnesota Twins (76-85) RHP Dean Kremer (4-5, 4.97 ERA/1.20 WHIP)

Best Bet: Texas Rangers Team Total Over 4.5 +105 Lucky Rebel

The Texas Rangers face a must win season finale and they would need a little help to clinch the division. Texas would be American league West champions with a win, coupled with a Houston loss. After dropping game 1 of this series, the Rangers responded with a 6-2 victory last night. Minnesota throws right hander Dean Kremer to the mound today. Kremer has pitched well over his past three outings but he usually only goes 5-6 innings. Behind him is a Minnesota bullpen that owns a 5th worst 5.71 ERA. With Texas dialed in for every pitch, I expect them to get to this pen early enough to tack on enough runs to cash this bet.

Best Bet: Cory Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases +115 Lucky Rebel

Texas Shortstop Corey Seager has battled injuries this season. In 101 games he is hitting .226 with 19 home runs and 16 doubles. He has 10 extra base hits in September, however, which is the most in any month during the season. The Head to Head matchup is the main reason I like this wager. Seager is 5/9 lifetime vs Kremer, with 1 home run. Seager also has a barrel rate of 14.6 (95th percentile), which matches up nicely with Kremer's barrel rate of  9.6 (14th percentile). With the season on the line, I expect the veteran Seager to do his part today.

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TonesTakes
TonesTakes

Tone is a NHL and MLB expert who regularly posts profitable seasons. A Philadelphia native, Tone enjoys watching his tickets cash while smoking cigars next to his fire pit. Feared by the sportsbooks, Tone is the ultimate bettors buddy.

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