NFL MVP Betting Guide: How to Handicap & Bet on NFL MVP Odds
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Tue Oct 20, 2026, 9:29 pm ET
Read Time: 15 minutes
NFL MVP is the most prominent individual award in professional football, and betting on who will win it is one of the NFL's biggest futures markets.
Sportsbooks typically release NFL MVP odds months before the regular season begins and continue updating them throughout the year. A preseason favorite may remain among the leaders all season, while another player can move from a longshot to the top of the odds board after emerging as a serious contender.
Finding a good NFL MVP bet requires more than predicting which player will finish with the best statistics. Position and team success can shape the race, while bettors also need to consider how a candidate compares with the competition.
Then there is the betting side of the equation. A player can have a realistic chance to win MVP without being worth betting at his current odds. Prices also change throughout the season as games provide more information and the race takes shape.
This guide covers current NFL MVP odds, what bettors should know about the award, how to handicap the race, and how to approach betting on MVP throughout the season.
Check Out Our NFL Handicapping Hub »
NFL MVP Odds and Favorites
NFL MVP odds are available before the season begins and throughout the regular season, giving bettors months to evaluate candidates and decide whether there are worthwhile opportunities in the market.
Prices can differ between sportsbooks, so line shopping can be especially useful when wagering on futures. Comparing MVP odds at the best NFL betting sites can help you find a better price before placing your bet.
Prices can also change substantially during the season. Individual performances and team results can move a candidate up or down the board, while injuries and developments involving other contenders can reshape the market as well.
The table below features the latest available 2026 NFL MVP odds. For each player listed, we have linked their Pro Football Reference profile so that interested bettors and readers can keep up with their stats throughout the season.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Tuesday, October 20, 2026.
| Player | Position | Team | 2026 NFL MVP Odds |
| Josh Allen | QB | Buffalo Bills | +185 |
| Brock Purdy | QB | San Francisco 49ers | +200 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs | +900 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | Jacksonville Jaguars | +1000 |
| Drake Maye | QB | New England Patriots | +1400 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | Cincinnati Bengals | +1600 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens | +2500 |
| Jared Goff | QB | Detroit Lions | +3000 |
| Jordan Love | QB | Green Bay Packers | +3300 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | Los Angeles Rams | +3500 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Detroit Lions | +4000 |
| Bryce Young | QB | Carolina Panthers | +4500 |
| Kenneth Walker | RB | Kansas City Chiefs | +5000 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | Chicago Bears | +6000 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | Dallas Cowboys | +6000 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | Houston Texans | +7500 |
| Bijan Robinson | RB | Atlanta Falcons | +10000 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Seattle Seahawks | +15000 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | DE | Houston Texans | +15000 |
| CeeDee Lamb | WR | Dallas Cowboys | +20000 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | Baltimore Ravens | +20000 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | Cleveland Browns | +20000 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | New Orleans Saints | +20000 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | Minnesota Vikings | +22500 |
Odds are subject to change.
NFL MVP Basics
Before betting on NFL MVP, it helps to understand how the award is decided, how sportsbooks price the candidates, and why certain positions have a clearer path to winning. These fundamentals provide useful context for evaluating the odds and handicapping the MVP race throughout the season.
What Is NFL MVP?
The Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award recognizes the player selected as the league's MVP for the regular season. The AP has presented the award since 1957, with voting conducted by a nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the NFL.
Under the ranked voting system introduced in 2022, each voter selects five candidates in order of preference. Those rankings are converted into points, and the player with the highest total wins MVP.
MVP is one of several major NFL honors, alongside Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year.
Unlike awards determined by statistical benchmarks, NFL MVP has no fixed formula. Voters assess individual performance, team success, and how each candidate compares with the competition. Because voting takes place after the regular season, performances in the NFL Playoffs do not influence the award.
How Do NFL MVP Odds Work?
NFL MVP odds are futures prices representing a sportsbook's assessment of each player's chances of winning the award.
For example, a successful $100 wager at +500 returns $500 in profit, while the same stake at +2000 returns $2,000. Those odds correspond to implied probabilities of approximately 16.7% and 4.8%, respectively.
Sportsbooks adjust MVP odds throughout the season as player performances, team results, injuries, and other developments reshape the race. A candidate's price may shorten following strong performances or lengthen after poor play or missed games.
Changes elsewhere in the field also matter. If a leading contender suffers an injury or his team struggles, other candidates may see their odds shorten without a significant change in their own performances.
Following line movement can help you understand how the market's assessment changes over time. However, the player with the shortest odds isn't automatically the best bet. The available price still needs to justify the candidate's realistic chances of winning.
Why Do Quarterbacks Usually Win?
Quarterbacks have dominated modern NFL MVP voting. Every AP MVP winner since Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012 has played quarterback, illustrating the difficulty of winning the award at another position.
Quarterbacks influence nearly every offensive possession, and their production is closely tied to team success. When an elite quarterback leads one of the NFL's best teams while producing outstanding individual statistics, he often has the ingredients voters have historically rewarded.
This creates a significant advantage over running backs, wide receivers, and defensive players, whose contributions may be exceptional without receiving the same recognition in MVP voting.
Non-quarterbacks have won the award historically, particularly running backs, so they shouldn't be dismissed entirely. However, a modern non-quarterback contender generally needs extraordinary production, substantial team success, and a season in which the leading quarterbacks fail to establish stronger MVP cases.
For bettors, that positional disadvantage should be reflected in the odds. A non-quarterback's potential payout may be appealing, but the available price must account for how difficult his path to winning MVP actually is.
How to Approach NFL MVP Handicapping
Handicapping NFL MVP requires evaluating more than which players you expect to have good seasons. The goal is to identify candidates capable of building a winning MVP case and determine how their path compares with the rest of the field.
Personal rooting interests can complicate that evaluation. If you are betting on a favorite player, apply the same standards you would to any other candidate rather than giving him a stronger MVP case simply because you want him to succeed.
A player can have an outstanding season without having the strongest MVP case, especially if another contender performs at an even higher level.
The information available to bettors also changes throughout the year. Before Week 1, much of the handicap is based on projections. Once the season begins, actual performance can gradually replace those assumptions.
What Factors Matter Most When Handicapping the Award?
No individual statistic or accomplishment guarantees an MVP. Bettors instead need to evaluate several factors that help determine the strength of a candidate's case.
The importance of those factors can vary by player. An elite quarterback on a Super Bowl contender faces a much different path than a non-quarterback trying to overcome the position's historical disadvantage.
Individual Performance
An MVP candidate needs an exceptional individual season.
For quarterbacks, passing production and touchdowns are obvious considerations, while rushing contributions can add another dimension to a candidate's case. Non-quarterbacks generally need production that separates them significantly from others at their position.
Rather than targeting one statistical threshold, compare a candidate's overall performance with the other players competing for the award.
Team Success
Individual production becomes more compelling when it contributes to winning.
A quarterback performing at an elite level for one of the NFL's top teams generally has a clearer MVP path than a similarly productive player whose team is struggling to reach the playoffs.
That creates a natural connection between the MVP race and the teams leading the Super Bowl betting market. A strong MVP candidate doesn't need to play for the Super Bowl favorite, but team success can strengthen the case surrounding an outstanding individual season.
MVP candidates don't perform in isolation, either. In handicapping NFL games, you can find useful context for evaluating the team, matchups, and circumstances surrounding a candidate's individual performance.
Team expectations therefore matter before the season, while standings and playoff positioning provide more meaningful evidence as the year progresses.
Positional Value
Position affects how difficult the path to MVP will be. Bettors considering a running back, receiver, or defensive player should account for the additional hurdle rather than evaluating every candidate as though the paths were equal.
Efficiency and Turnovers
Volume statistics don't tell the entire story.
Efficiency can help distinguish candidates with similar production, while turnovers can weaken an otherwise impressive case. Important NFL stats and metrics can reveal differences between candidates that traditional volume statistics may not show, but no single statistic determines who should win MVP.
Use those numbers to better understand the quality of a candidate's performance rather than searching for one metric that provides the answer.
Signature Performances
Certain games can become defining parts of an MVP season.
Outstanding performances in nationally televised games or major matchups can receive additional attention, especially when leading candidates face one another or a player excels against another top team.
One game shouldn't outweigh an entire season. However, memorable performances can help separate candidates whose overall cases are otherwise difficult to distinguish.
Availability
Players need to stay on the field long enough to build an MVP resume.
Missing one game doesn't necessarily eliminate a candidate, but extended absences reduce opportunities to accumulate production while other contenders continue strengthening their cases. Following NFL injury reports can help bettors assess a candidate's availability and understand injuries affecting the team around him.
Missed time can become increasingly difficult to overcome as the season progresses.
Competition for the Award
An MVP candidate isn't competing against a fixed benchmark. He is competing against the rest of the field.
A season worthy of serious MVP consideration one year may not be enough in another. Bettors therefore need to evaluate not only how well their candidate is performing, but what he may need to do to separate from his strongest competition.
How to Evaluate Candidates Throughout the Season
NFL MVP handicapping is an ongoing process. Before the season, bettors must project individual performance and team success. Once games begin, those expectations should be tested against actual results.
A candidate's outlook can change considerably throughout the year, making it important to reassess both his MVP case and the available odds rather than relying on preseason assumptions.
How to Evaluate Candidates Before the Season
Preseason handicapping starts with determining whether a player has a realistic path to MVP. For quarterbacks, consider their expected production, offensive supporting cast, and opportunities to deliver an award-caliber season.
Team expectations matter as well. Candidates generally benefit from playing for teams capable of winning consistently and competing near the top of their conferences. Evaluating the NFL schedule can help you assess the difficulty of that path.
Consider what needs to go right for each player. An established star may already have a clear MVP ceiling, while a less proven candidate might need a significant individual breakthrough or major improvement from his team.
Finally, evaluate the price. Even a player with a plausible MVP path may not be worth backing if his odds don't adequately compensate for the uncertainty surrounding an entire season.
How to Evaluate Candidates During the Season
Once games begin, actual performance should gradually replace preseason projections. Evaluate whether a candidate's production is sustainable, how his team is performing, and whether he continues separating himself from other contenders.
Following an MVP candidate can also overlap with NFL prop betting. Quarterbacks and skill-position players regularly feature in player markets, including over/under bets on individual-game statistics. Those wagers are separate from MVP futures but involve many of the same performances.
Look ahead at remaining opponents, injuries, and scheduling challenges. Reliable NFL betting resources can help you monitor relevant developments throughout the season.
Continue comparing candidates rather than evaluating one player in isolation. An MVP race can change because another contender surges or struggles, even when your preferred player's performance remains consistent.
If you already hold an MVP wager, use your weekly NFL betting checklist to periodically reassess that position without overreacting to individual games.
Finally, review the current odds. A player's MVP chances can improve while his betting value declines if his price shortens more dramatically than his realistic chances of winning.
How to Approach NFL MVP Betting
Identifying a strong MVP candidate doesn't automatically make him a good bet. The available odds, timing, and amount you're willing to wager are just as important as the player's chances of winning the award.
When to bet: There is no single best time to enter the MVP market. As with deciding when to place your bets generally, the tradeoff is between price and information. Preseason wagers may offer longer odds but involve greater uncertainty, while waiting provides more evidence about individual performance and team success, potentially at a shorter price.
Betting favorites: The favorite is considered the most likely winner, but that doesn't automatically make him the best wager. Compare his realistic chances with the available odds. A favorite can be overpriced, just as a shorter price can still represent value.
Considering longshots: Large payouts can be tempting, but focus on whether a candidate has a plausible path to MVP. Position, expected team success, individual production, and competition for the award all matter. A worthwhile longshot needs more than an unlikely series of events to become a contender.
Betting multiple candidates: Backing more than one player can make sense when several offer attractive odds. However, only one can win, and each additional wager increases your total investment. Sound bankroll management means evaluating your combined exposure rather than adding candidates simply to improve your chances of holding a winning ticket.
Hedging: If an early MVP pick becomes a leading contender and his odds shorten considerably, you may have an opportunity to hedge your bet by backing another candidate. Consider the new price, your existing stake, and the potential profit you're sacrificing before deciding whether a hedge makes sense.
Past NFL MVP Winners
Recent NFL MVP history illustrates just how strongly quarterbacks have come to dominate the award.
Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win AP NFL MVP, capturing the award after rushing for 2,097 yards for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012. Every winner since has been a quarterback.
That history doesn't guarantee that the next MVP will play quarterback, but it provides important context for bettors evaluating candidates at other positions.
| Season | NFL MVP | Position | Team |
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford | QB | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | QB | Buffalo Bills |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | QB | Denver Broncos |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | San Diego Chargers |
Other Betting Information
Other NFL Content by Betting News
Do you find our NFL MVP betting guide useful? It is just one piece of the NFL content we churn out year-round. Check out some of our other NFL content, and bookmark Betting News so you don't miss anything.
This guide is just one of many sports betting guides available at Betting News. If you want to learn a type of bet, how to bet on a sport, league, or event, or understand a betting strategy, we have you covered.
Along with our general NFL betting guide, here are other guides we have for major leagues and competitions, strategies, and terminology:
- NBA Betting Guide
- MLB Betting Guide
- NHL Betting Guide
- College Football Betting Guide
- College Basketball Betting Guide
- WNBA Betting Guide
- Soccer Betting Guide
- Tennis Betting Guide
- Formula 1 Betting Guide
- NASCAR Betting Guide
- Buying and Selling Points in Sports Betting
- Laying or Taking the Points in Sports Betting
And in addition to our Super Bowl hub and betting guides, we have many other hubs and guides connected to major events, including the FIFA World Cup, March Madness, all of the Triple Crown horse races (the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes), the College World Series, and the golf and tennis majors.
Follow Betting News on Social Media
We cover the NFL in great depth on our Twitch streams and our other social media channels. Follow us on Twitch, Twitter, TikTok, and YouTube for frequent NFL betting insight from our content team.
Learn About Where to Bet on Sports
At Betting News, we have in-depth reviews of many top online sportsbooks, including Lucky Rebel, BetOnline, and Everygame, as well as top Canadian sportsbooks, international sportsbooks, and VPN-friendly crypto sportsbooks for U.S. players.
Learn About Other Types of Gambling
We don't just cover sports betting, either. Prediction markets like Polymarket are on the rise, and we are ramping up our coverage of that sector.
Outside of sports and sports betting, we also have a slew of resources dedicated to casino gambling and online poker.
Do you love to play online slots, blackjack, roulette, and other popular online casino games? Check out our catalog of casino guides and learn all you need to know to play your favorite games at the best online casinos.
Do you like to play Texas Hold'em or Five Card Draw while competing for real money against other players around the world? Check out our online poker guides and explore our recommendations of top online poker sites.
Remember, betting on the NFL and any other sport or league should be for entertainment and enjoyment. Always bet responsibly and utilize good bankroll management.
But if you find yourself having trouble sticking to responsible gambling practices, take a step back and/or use resources such as the National Council on Problem Gambling to get the help you may need.