MLB Bets for Friday, May 22: Motion in Miami
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Fri May 22, 2026, 12:19 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Happy Friday, folks! Hope your day is going well so far, as we gear up for Memorial Day Weekend, along with an intriguing slate of baseball tonight.
I've got a few plays that stand out on the diamond, so let's jump into the action with my MLB bets for Friday, May 22.
MLB Bets for Friday, May 22
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
After dropping three of four games against the Braves, the Marlins look to turn the page in a new series against the Mets.
Eury Perez will be the arm Miami turns to, which is a bit of a scary thought. The 24-year-old is 2-6 through 10 starts with a 5.33 ERA and 5.20 FIP. He's failed to produce ground balls efficiently, as his rate sits at just 34.5%, and he's been vulnerable to the long ball with a 15% HR/FB ratio.
Additionally, he's walking nearly five batters per nine innings and owns a barrel rate north of 14%. The Mets are slowly but surely improving at the plate, posting a 100 wRC+ against right-handed pitching since the beginning of May.
Conversely, the Marlins' bats have fallen asleep during that span, as they sit with just a 78 wRC+.
There may be some hope for Miami today, though. Right-hander Tobias Myers gets the nod for the visitors, and this will mark just his second start of the season, although he has appeared in 16 games overall.
He, too, owns a low ground-ball rate of 35%, along with a high HR/FB ratio of 13%, while his hard-hit rate sits at 42%.
This feels like a game that could get out of control quickly for both pitchers, and we're getting a great number on the total while only laying -120 juice on over 7.5 runs. That's the wager I'll be backing in this matchup.
Bet: Mets / Marlins Over 7.5 Runs (-120)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers
After sweeping their NL Central nemesis, the Chicago Cubs, in three straight games, the Brewers look to carry that momentum back home as they host the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Dodgers are slowly getting back into form, having won four of their past five games, including taking two of three against their division rival San Diego Padres.
Los Angeles will send young left-hander Justin Wrobleski to the mound. His 2.49 ERA is certainly impressive, but his 4.83 xFIP and 4.90 SIERA tell a different story. He also hasn't generated many strikeouts, posting just a 4.80 strikeouts-per-nine innings mark.
On the other side, the Brewers will rely on Logan Henderson to hold his own against one of the most dynamic offenses in baseball. The 24-year-old right-hander owns a 3.50 ERA, but his underlying metrics are even more encouraging, highlighted by a 2.94 expected ERA and 2.84 xFIP.
Henderson has made just four starts this season, allowing 16 total hits, seven earned runs and only a pair of home runs.
The gap between these pitchers' metrics is more than noteworthy. It's convincing enough for me to back the home team in this matchup.
Bet: Brewers Moneyline (-104)
Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Well, to no one's surprise at this point, we got screwed on the run line once again. Last night, we had the Arizona Diamondbacks to win and cover the -1.5 run line, and yes, they won, but of course it was by just one run.
So, naturally, I'm inclined to run it back on Friday night.
Michael Soroka gets the start for Arizona, and his 6-2 record, 3.49 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 20% K-BB rate are all selling me on trusting him against this weak Colorado lineup.
The Rockies are hitting just a 71 wRC+, along with a .139 ISO and .651 OPS against right-handed pitching since the start of May.
As discussed yesterday, the D'Backs are trending in a much more positive direction, and they should be able to continue that against Tomoyuki Sugano.
The 36-year-old is pitching his way out of baseball. Okay, perhaps that's a bit harsh. His ERA is only 4.02, but his 7.23 xERA and 5.48 FIP paint a much uglier picture. He also owns a 14% HR/FB rate, a 5.6% K-BB rate, plus a disgusting 15.5% barrel rate and 47% hard-hit rate.
He's destined to get obliterated, and I'm hoping it happens on Friday night.
Play: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 (+104)
MLB Bets:
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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