MLB Expert Picks for Sunday, August 16 | The Dinger Report — Sunday Funday
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sun Aug 16, 2026, 7:24 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
The ball hasn't been flying the same, but conditions today look fantastic in the MLB. We've got a full slate today on the diamond and I've got two big time hitters I love. Let's jump right into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 16-31; +17.65 units
Today's Dingers
Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+265) | Lucky Rebel
Yordan Alvarez has hit just 2 home runs in his last 20 games, yet still somehow sits tied for most home runs in the MLB. He finally broke out of a long standing slump on Friday, sending one to the moon against the Mariners on Friday.
Yordan's hitting .321 on the year with a .622 SLG, but at home he's been even better. Here at Daikin Park, Yordan's hitting .380 and his SLG jumps to .738. He's hit 20 of his 36 home runs here at home and big hitting lefty has a 60% HH here in Houston.
On the bump for the Mainers is Bryan Woo. Woo's got a 6.22 ERA on the road this year, he's giving up 1.1 HR/9 away from Seattle and he's been terrible against left handed bats.
Woo's givien up 12 home runs this year, 9 of which have been to left handed hitters. He's allowing lefties to hit .239, but he's giving up a 47% HH to southpaws and Yordan's killing right handed pitching.
Against righties, Yordan's hitting .345, with a .674 SLG, 24% BRL and 56% HH. Woo's also going to his 4-seam fastball on about 54% of his pitches against lefties and thats just something you can't put there in front of Yordan.
Jake Burger Home Run (+300) | Lucky Rebel
The Athletics have an afternoon game, conditions look amazing and Jake Burger gets to face off against a lefty. Everything's pointing towards a Jake Burger long ball today and I'm locked all the way in on it.
Burger leads the Rangers with 20 home runs this year and just 6 have come against left handed pitchers this year. Burger's recorded just 95 plate appearances against left handed pitchers this year but he's been incredibly good against southpaws.
His batting average jumps from .224 against righties, to .274 against lefties. His SLG goes from .388 to .516 and his BRL rate jumps nearly 3 points against left handed pitching.
On the bump for the Athletics will be lefty, Jacob Lopez. Lopez has a 5.54 ERA, he's giving up 1.7 HR/9 at home and 12 of the 14 home runs he's allowed have been to right handed batters.
Lopez's ERA jumps to 7.12 during the day and he's giving up 1.7 HR/9 in these afternoon games. Winds are blowing out toward center field at 4-10 miles per hour and that might just be enough to get one Burger hit over the fence.
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