Holland vs Della Maddalena Prediction & Best Bets for Noche UFC: Potential Upset Alert
Written by: Devon Platana
Published: Wed Sep 13, 2023, 10:11 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Betting News has covered Noche UFC all week as the Mexican Independence Day event quickly approaches on Saturday, Sept. 16. The next matchup to look at is the welterweight co-main event between the veteran Kevin Holland and the red-hot Jack Della Maddalena.
These fighters are neck-and-neck in the welterweight standings as Holland sits at No. 13 while Della Maddalena is right behind him at No. 14. A win will surely see the victor ascend the rankings while defeat would likely leave the loser unranked.
Having said that, this article contains everything you need to know ahead of the Noche UFC co-main event. Keep reading for the latest Holland vs. Della Maddalena odds, as well as a prediction and the best bets for the showdown.
Noche UFC: Holland vs Della Maddalena Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, Sept. 13 at 9:33 a.m. ET.
Moneyline
- Kevin Holland (+121)
- Jack Della Maddalena (-141)
Will the Fight Go the Distance?
- Yes (+135)
- No (-165)
Round Total
- Over 2.5 Rounds (+110)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-140)
Holland vs Della Maddalena Tale of the Tape
Kevin Holland — Jack Della Maddalena
- Record: 25-9 (1NC) — 15-2
- Height: 6'3" — 5'11"
- Reach: 81" — 73"
- Weight: 170 lbs — 170 lbs
- Age: 30 — 27
- Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Switch
- Knockouts: 14 — 11
Holland vs Della Maddalena Noche UFC Preview
Although things could change, oddsmakers are expecting Holland vs. Della Maddalena to be a relatively even showdown. Della Maddalena is the slight moneyline favorite at -141 odds on BetOnline, carrying an implied win probability of 58.5%.
Della Maddalena is one of the hottest fighters in MMA at the moment, having won 15 consecutive fights. He's made a name for himself by finishing opponents left and right during that run, boasting an 86.7% finish rate with 11 knockouts and two submission victories.
On top of that, the 27-year-old switch striker won four of his last five fights in the first round, earning 'performance of the night honors' thrice. Having said that, he's coming off a split-decision win over Bassil Hafez in his most recent fight back in July.
Meanwhile, you can never underestimate Holland. He might not have the title reigns of some fighters, but he's one of the most accomplished individuals in UFC history, having set various records, including the most strikes landed and wins in a calendar year when it comes to the middleweight division's history.
"Trailblazer" has also been solid since moving to the welterweight division, going 4-2 in six fights. Each of those victories came by some form of finish, winning twice by TKO and another two times via submission.
Holland is also the better wrestler of the two, averaging 0.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41% accuracy. Meanwhile, Della Maddalena sits at 0.36 and 20%, respectively, and was just taken down three times in his last outing.
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It's also hard to ignore the size difference between these welterweights. Holland not only stands four inches taller than Della Maddalena but he also has a whopping eight-inch reach advantage. It'll be interesting to see if (and how) the favorite overcomes that difference.
Noche UFC: Holland vs Della Maddalena Betting Trends and Markets
As with most MMA fights, the moneyline doesn't tell the entire story. Fortunately, sportsbooks like BetOnline have a wide variety of Holland vs. Della Maddalena prop bets that help shed some light on how the fight could unfold.
The first thing I noticed is that BetOnline favors that this fight won't go the distance (-165). It isn't too shocking given that Holland and Della Maddelena have racked up 34 finishes in 52 combined fights.
With that in mind, the most likely method of victory is Della Maddalena winning by KO/TKO at +185 odds. The talented Australian has tallied 11 KO/TKO victories in his young career and has won eight of his last eight of his previous 11 outings by way of knockout.
If Holland pulls off the upset, his top victory method is to win by knockout (+325) as well. Again, he's one of the best strikers that the UFC has seen and hasn't slowed down as a welterweight, outstriking each opponent in his last four wins.
If you're looking for an even bigger win, you might like the method + round combo market. If that's the case, Della Maddalena is favored to win by first-round KO/TKO — something he's done seven times in his career, including thrice at the UFC level.
Holland vs Della Maddalena Prediction & Picks for Noche UFC
Della Maddalena has been on a roll, but it comes to an end this weekend. He didn't look that great against Hafez — a relative nobody — and nearly lost that fight. Meanwhile, Holland is used to dealing with stiffer competition while his superior grappling/ground game gives him an edge the longer the fight goes on.
For the best bet, I like the value that comes with Holland at +121 on the moneyline. If you're looking for more juice than that, you can also take him to win inside the distance (+230). All it takes is one miscue from JDM for Holland to capitalize, proving why he's a finishing machine.
Noche UFC Event FAQ
When is Noche UFC?
- Noche UFC will take place on Saturday, September 16, 2023.
Where is Noche UFC?
- Noche UFC will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
What time does Noche UFC start?
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch Noche UFC?
- Both Noche UFC main and preliminary cards can be viewed exclusively on ESPN+.
How can I bet on Noche UFC?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have Noche UFC odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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