Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC on ABC 4: Odds Point to Clear Betting Favorite

Devon Platana

Written by: Devon Platana

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Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Jailton Almeida Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC on ABC 4: Odds Point to Clear Betting Favorite cover


Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina plays host to UFC on ABC 4 on Saturday, May 13. The upcoming card is absolutely stacked from head to toe, highlighted by a main event showdown between heavyweights Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida.

These heavyweight brutes are doing their best to climb up the division ranks to earn their first title shot. As it stands, Rozenstruik heads into the weekend as the No. 9-ranked fighter in the heavyweight division while Almeida isn’t too far behind, sitting at No. 12. Just how much of an impact would a victory have on either man’s ranking?

While time will tell who’ll emerge the victory, Betting News has all of your Rozenstruik vs Almeida needs covered. Here’s a look at the latest MMA betting odds, a prediction, and the best bets to make concerning the UFC on ABC 4 main event.

Rozenstruik vs Almeida— Tale of the Tape

Jairzinho Rozenstruik — Jailton Almeida

  • Record: 13-4 — 18-2
  • Height: 6’2” — 6’3”
  • Reach: 78” — 79”
  • Weight: 242lbs — 205lbs
  • Age: 35 — 31
  • Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
  • Knockouts: 12 — 7

UFC on ABC 4: Rozenstruik vs Almeida Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, May 10)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik +390
  • Jailton Almeida -590

Bovada Sportsbook

  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik +375
  • Jailton Almeida -500


  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik +380
  • Jailton Almeida -530


  • Jairzinho Rozenstruik +400
  • Jailton Almeida -550

Jairzinho vs Almeida Fighter History

All four highlights sportsbooks are in agreement that Almeida is the heavy betting favorite ahead of UFC on ABC 4. The former Thunder Fight Light Heavyweight Champion is available at an average of -543 odds across the four sources, carrying an implied win probability of 84.5%.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Almeida is heavily favored considering the run he’s been on. The 31-year-old Brazilian fighter has been victorious in each of his past 13 fights, finishing off each of those opponents in a convincing manner (seven by submission, six by knockout).

Almeida joined the UFC as a light heavyweight, but moved to the heavyweight division for his most recent three bouts. His heavyweight run has seen him defeat both Parker Porter and Anton Turkalj by first-round submission. He most recently picked up a second-round TKO victory over Shamil Abdurakhimov at UFC 283, taking home ‘Performance of the Night’ honors for his work.

Meanwhile, Rozenstruik has had a tough time finding consistency in recent years. Although he opened his career with a perfect 10-0 run, “Bigi Boy” is just 3-4 in his past seven fights. He was finished twice over that stretch, having been knocked out by Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov.

Nevertheless, Rozenstruik is still confident that he can stop Almeida’s impressive run at UFC on ABC 4. The 35-year-old veteran has a bit of momentum on his side following UFC 282’s KO win against Chris Daukaus. At the same time, it’s also been nearly four years since Rozenstruik has won back-to-back outings.

It’s also going to be hard for Rozenstruik to win when his opponent has most of the statistical advantages. For starters, Almeida averages 4.19 significant strikes per minute with 64% accuracy while only absorbing 0.34. On the flip side, Rozenstruik tallies 2.93 SPM with 46% accuracy while absorbing 3.23.

Furthermore, Almeida averages 6.73 takedowns and 2.2 submissions per 15 minutes, highlighting how his grappling skills give him an edge. While Rozenstruik has only been taken down once in his UFC career, the lone occurrence happened in his loss to Volkov, giving Almeida a strategy to work with.

UFC on ABC 4 Betting Markets & Trends for Rozenstruik vs Almeida

BetOnline Sportsbook has a plethora of Rozenstruik vs Almeida betting markets for those looking for more value at UFC on ABC 4.

For example, the most likely method of victory is for Almeida to win by submission at +100 odds. As mentioned before, seven of his past 13 victories have come by submission. At the same time, Rozenstruik has never been submitted in his career, only losing twice by KO/TKO and twice by points.

Speaking of which, Rozenstruik’s top method of victory is to win by KO/TKO at +500. It isn’t a surprise given that all but one of his 13 career victories have come via knockout. Almeida has been knocked out once in his career, however, that took place nearly six years ago at Katana Fight 3.

Regardless of the victory, BetOnline isn’t projecting a long fight. The sportsbook favors that this fight will not go the distance at -1350 odds — an implied probability of 93.1%.

The method & combo market also points to this being a quick fight, favoring Almeida to win by first-round submission at +220 odds. Of his 11 career submission wins, eight occurred in the opening frame.

As for Rozenstruik’s method & combo betting, his top option is to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +1200. Nine of his 12 all-time knockout wins took place in the first round.

Rozenstruik vs Almeida UFC on ABC 4 Fight Prediction

While upsets are fun to watch, I don’t see that being the case at UFC on ABC 4. Almeida is just too dominant, holding the advantages when it comes to both striking and grappling. He’s completely obliterated the competition and with Rozenstruik struggling to string together wins, Almeida’s winning streak will only grow bigger at Spectrum Center.

Having said that, I’ll Almeida winning by submission in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 at +110 odds on BetOnline Sportsbook as the best bet. While he’s capable of knocking Rozenstruik out, the difference in grappling skills is too big not to exploit. Considering how only one of Almeida’s 20 previous opponents has made it out of the second round, I like his odds of ending the fight early.

UFC on ABC 4 Event Details

When is UFC on ABC 4?

UFC on ABC 4 will take place on Saturday, May 13, 2023.

Where is UFC on ABC 4?

UFC on ABC 4 will take place at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina.

What time does UFC on ABC 4 start?

  • UFC on ABC 4 Preliminary Card Start Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
  • Start Time of UFC on ABC 4’s Main Card: 3 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC on ABC 4?

The preliminary card can be viewed exclusively on either ESPN or ESPN+. Once the event turns over to the main card, MMA enthusiasts can catch the rest of the action on ABC and ESPN+.

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Devon Platana
Devon Platana

Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.

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