Oregon State Beavers Win Total Future: Will Beavers Thrive in New Pac-12?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat Aug 08, 2026, 3:33 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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We've already locked in five win totals this year in the Power Four conferences, but as we turn our attention to some G6 schools, this one caught my eye. Last season, the Oregon State Beavers only won two games. They beat Lafayette, and they beat Washington State in the Pac-2 Championship game. This season, the Pac-12 is back, and they added six very good schools from the Mountain West and Sun Belt. Things just got a lot tougher on the Beavers. Can they manage to find five wins to clear their total?
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Oregon State Beavers Football Team Preview & Schedule
Jamarcus Shephard is the new head coach for the Oregon State Beavers
Beavers Offense
Former Texas and Duke quarterback, Maalik Murphy is still at helm of this Beaver's offense. They return five starters from last year, but will be trying to get plenty of new pieces to gel. Murphy is working with a bunch of brand new skill players, as well as RB Cornell Hatcher and WR Eddie Freauff who will see starting roles this year.
Despite having arguably the third best quarterback in the league, the running backs and offensive line are very questionable, giving me little faith in the Beavers putting up major points. The good news is new head coach Jamarcus Shepard is an offensive mind who spent time under Kalen DeBoer.
Beavers Defense
Defensively, they also return five starters. But they were still nearly outside the top 100 in points allowed last year, giving up 29.4 after scoring just 21. Mike MacIntyre is new defensive coordinator in Corvallis. He's got plenty of experience as a head coach and DC at the collegiate level, and had some stints in the NFL coaching defensive backs. But they are going to have their hands full playing some of these offenses, with arguably the worst from seven in the conference, not to mention a mediocre at best secondary.
Beavers 2026 Schedule
- 9/5: @ Houston
- 9/12: vs. Texas Tech
- 9/19: vs. Montana
- 9/26: @ UTEP
- 10/3: @ Colorado State
- 10/10: vs. San Diego State
- 10/17: vs. Washington State
- 10/31: @ Fresno State (Both Teams off Bye)
- 11/7: vs. Texas State
- 11/14: @ Boise State
- 11/21: vs. Utah State
Right now, they only have 11 scheduled games. The Pac-12 is doing a "flex game" in Week 13 on November 28. Matchups will not be determined until at least six days prior to the contest, but more than likely, they will be playing at Washington State.
The "flex game" will not count towards a conference record. Pac-12 teams will only play seven conference games, plus a "non conference" game against an opponent from within the league. This schedule for the Beavers is tough, so let me show you how they stay under their win total.
Oregon State Beavers Win Total Picks and Predictions
Cornell Hatcher Jr. will stand alongside Maalik Murphy in the backfield for the Beavers
Oregon State Beavers Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-6)
Best Bet: Oregon State Under 4.5 Wins (-134) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Right of the bat, Oregon State goes to Houston and hosts Texas Tech. Both of whom are going to be very good teams in the Big 12. Two easy losses there. Even I will give them a win at UTEP, as the Miners are projected to be THE worst team in the Mountain West this year. But against Montana, I'm not so quick to give the Beavers a win. The Grizzlies are regularly a very good FCS team, and made it to the semifinals last season, and the championship in 2023. I think that game will be more of a coin flip than some think.
Whether they go 2-2 or 1-3 in non conference play, let's talk about their Pac-12 schedule. They are projected to finish second to last in the league, only behind Colorado State. But they will have to play the Rams on the road, making it much more difficult to win. I simply don't see them beating Texas State or San Diego State at home, or winning on the road against Boise or Fresno, the four toughest teams in this conference. Give me four more losses there.
That leaves a rivalry game at home against a hungry Washington State team, and hosting the Utah State Aggies, who both should be better than the Beavers. I don't see them winning both of these games, and I think they could lose to the Cougars twice.
In theory, the games I think they actually stand a chance at winning are…
- vs. Montana
- @ UTEP
- @ Colorado State
- vs. Utah State
Even walking away with victories in all of those games won't be enough to clear the total. I see this bet as taking the Pac-12 field against the Beavers and I'm more than okay with it. Fade the Beavs.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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