Thursday Night Football: Patriots vs. Bears – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/22)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Oct 21, 2026, 3:25 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.0
-110
50.5
-110u
+141
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.0
-110
50.5
-105o
-160
This week's edition of Thursday Night Football happens in the Windy City as the Chicago Bears and Caleb Williams host Drake Maye and the New England Patriots. Both teams are coming off a win from last Sunday, and the Bears are certainly happy to have their starting quarterback under center. But can they get a big win at home in primetime against the Super Bowl Runner Ups? Find out with our expert NFL picks below.
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears Game Information
Caleb Williams and the Bears host the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football
New England has won four of six games this year. They lost a close one to Seattle to start the year, and were uncompetitive against the Jaguars on the road. However, they have shown out in their four wins. The defense has been rock solid, holding the Jets, Raiders and Steelers to under 20 points each (a combined 39 in three games), and the offense got a gritty road win over the Bills in an AFC East divisional battle.
As for the Bears, they've lost both of their NFC North divisional games this year, but do have wins over the Panthers, Eagles, Jets and Falcons. Both teams scored about 23ish points against New York, while allowing 19 (New England) or 12 (Chicago). Based on that common opponent, this line makes sense to me, as I would price the hosts as about a field goal favorite.
Matchup Information – New England vs. Chicago – October 22
- Venue & Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, IL)
- Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
- Kick Off: 8:15 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Patriots vs. Bears Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, October 20, 2026 at 2:37 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Patriots +3 (-110)
- Bears -3 (-110)
Moneyline
- Patriots +141
- Bears -161
Total
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Under 50.5 (-110)
Patriots vs. Bears NFL Analysis and Insights
Given that it is a short week, I automatically side with the hosts. Sure, they had to travel back from Atlanta, but following that win, they stayed in their own beds all week in preparation for this matchup. Chicago might still be missing Kyle Monangai, but Roschon Johnson has stepped up in his place.
New England is a team I like backing more as an underdog than as a favorite, but ultimately I will be staying off a side in this game. My confidence lies in betting the total.
New England Patriots vs. Chicago Bears NFL Expert Picks
Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have to scheme up a way to take down the Chicago Bears as underdogs at Soldier Field
Best Bet: Patriots/Bears Under 50.5 (-110) BetOnline
New England has relied on their defense to win them games, the same could be said about the Bears. On a short week, in a primetime game, I see both coaches leaning on that side of the ball. Yes, we know Ben Johnson is an offensive guru, but if anyone knows how to scheme against that, it's Mike Vrabel.
The Bears rank top six in the league in points per game allowed, but are number two in third down conversion rate allowed. New England is No. 5 in points per game allowed, ranking top 10 in both red zone scoring allowed and third down conversion rate. Point being, both defenses are rock solid, and it will show in this game.
Both teams have been involved in games that had one team fail to find the end zone. The Patriots did not allow a touchdown against the Steelers, but failed to score one against the Jaguars. Chicago played a game with Minnesota that ended 9-3 thanks to four field goals. No one found the promised land.
While I don't think we see a complete stinker, I have this as a gritty game ending 24-21 either way at most, comfortably under the current total.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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