Can Gators Keep Chomping in Columbia? #8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri Expert Picks (10/3)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Oct 02, 2026, 3:38 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-5.5
-110
58
-110u
-220
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+5.5
-105
58
-105o
+190
Jon Sumrall's Florida Gators are the talk of the town, and for good reason. Look, before the season began, I wanted to see it. We had a new head coach, a new quarterback, and a program that needed to be revamped. That's exactly what Sumrall has done through four weeks of the season, and I'm a believer. The No. 8 ranked Gators put up 44 points on the road at Auburn before annihilating Ole Miss in the Swamp, scoring 52 against a top five team. Now, they have a "ranked" battle on the road against the No. 5 Missouri Tigers. Will they keep chomping their way to wins? Or will Mizzou prove they deserve that little number next to their name? Find out with our expert picks below.
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NCAA Football Expert Insights: #8 Florida Gators vs. #25 Missouri Tigers
Austin Simmons and Missouri host a top 10 SEC opponent on Saturday
Florida is much more deserving of their top ten ranking than Mizzou is of their top 25. Florida beat an SEC team on the road, and took down a top five team in the country by 24. They've proven their worth early on. As for Missouri, they beat Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kansas (big whoop), and struggled against Troy. Against your first real opponent, you lost to Mississippi State. Sure, the Bulldogs are a great team, and the Tigers were up by seven going into the fourth quarter, but they couldn't close.
Will they be able to pick themselves back up after a loss? Neither should be looking ahead, as Florida hosts South Carolina next week, and Mizzou takes on Texas A&M. This ranked matchup on Saturday should be at the forefront of their minds.
Matchup Information – Florida vs. Missouri – October 3
- Venue & Location: Memorial Stadium (Columbia, MO)
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Gators vs. Tigers Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Friday, October 2, 2026 at 2:21 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Florida -5.5 (-110)
- Missouri +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Florida -220
- Missouri +186
Total
- Over 57.5 (-110)
- Under 57.5 (-110)
#8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri: NCAA Football Expert Picks
Aaron Philo could be forced to use his arm more than normal this weekend
Florida vs. Missouri Prediction: Florida Wins, Missouri Covers, Under 57.5
Best Bets: Aaron Philo Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetOnline
Even if Florida controls this game, this number is way too low. All anyone has heard about it Florida's running back Jadan Baugh, and for good reason. The guy has run for over 100 yards per game and has 11 total touchdowns on the year. If I'm Missouri, I am throwing guys into the box, and forcing the Gators to beat us with Aaron Philo's arm.
He's only cleared this number twice, against FAU and Campbell, but he's done so on as little as 16 completions. I expect the Tigers to force him into throwing the ball more than normal, which should increase his volume, therefore making this number easier to clear. Philo has 204 yards on 15/22 passing against Auburn, and just 196 on 16/23 against Ole Miss. This should be the game where he has to throw the ball at least 25 times, which is why I have also played his pass attempts at over 23.5 (-105).
Missouri's opponents have thrown the ball over 30 times per game in each of their last three, letting Kamario Taylor go for 360 yards on 27/38 passing. Again, you cannot let Baugh beat you on the ground. Making Philo air it out is your best bet at pulling off this upset. Good luck, Tigers, you'll need it.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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