New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Best Bets: NCAA Football Expert Picks & Predictions (10/21)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Oct 21, 2026, 1:23 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.0
-105
47
-110u
-145
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.0
-110
46
+108o
+130
We have reached Day 21 of betting on football for 61 straight, and unfortunately for us, we only have one contest to work with tonight. With no NFL on this Wednesday, we have just a single NCAA Football matchup today to try and find a play. We head to Houston (or just outside of the metro) for a CUSA battle as the New Mexico State Aggies take on the Sam Houston Bearkats. Neither team has been overly impressive so far this season, yet the Aggies are still a slight road favorite against their hosts. Tap into our expert NCAA Football picks to decide if you will tail or fade our analysts tonight!
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks for the NCAA Football Season.
NCAA Football Expert Insights: New Mexico State Aggies vs. Sam Houston Bearkats
Landyn Locke has thrown for over 1,400 yards this year with 11 touchdowns, but he also has four interceptions
Plain and simple, we have two pretty bad teams competing on this Wednesday. The hosts have lost three straight, none have been competitive, and are just 1-5 on the year. That win coming over Nicholls State, 59-0. In their last three, the Bearkats have been outscored 100-20, losing by an average of 26.7 points. Just last week, they dropped a game to Western Kentucky at home, losing 16-3.
Not only is this New Mexico State team coming off a bye and have lost three of their last four, but that one win came against the Hilltoppers. The Aggies ran them off the field, winning 34-13. Given the fact that NMSU beat WKU by 21, and the Bearkats lost to WKU by 13, shouldn't the Aggies win this game by 30 points easily?
Last 5 Games
NMSU
Result
ATS
Total
vs MTSU
L31 - 24
L-3.5
44
@ UTEP
W34 - 31
W+4.0
-
@ TENN
L9 - 42
W+36.5
P51
SHSU
Result
ATS
Total
-
W-
W-
-
-
W-
W-
-
-
W-
W-
-
-
W-
W-
-
-
W-
W-
-
Matchup Information – New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston – October 21
- Venue & Location: Elliot T. Bowers Stadium (Huntsville, TX)
- Date: Wednesday, October 21, 2026
- Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Aggies vs. Bearkats Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 12:47 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- New Mexico State -3 (-108)
- Sam Houston +3 (-112)
Moneyline
- New Mexico State -150
- Sam Houston +130
Total
- Over 45 (-110)
- Under 45 (-110)
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston: NCAA Football Expert Picks
Back James Jones to run all over this Bearkats defense tonight on the road
New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Prediction: New Mexico State Wins and Covers, Over 45
Best Bets: James Jones Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-117) BetOnline
Despite me siding with the Aggies heavily, I have decided to dive into a market that I have straight up sucked in so far this year. We are just 1-6 betting on CFB rushing yards props, but that's not stopping us from doing so tonight. We already got a great line, as this number is up to 89.5. However I am confident James can get 100+ for us.
He's had triple digit rushing yards in three of six games this year, clearing 80+ in three straight and four of six this year, finishing with 78 yards against Hawaii. James is the CLEAR RB1 on this roster, as he has 92 carries for 599 yards, while his backup has just 39 touches for 164 yards. However, James has three TDs while Washington (the back up) has two. Perhaps he is the goal line guy, but James gets most of the carries otherwise.
The Aggies like to throw the ball, but they might have some trouble doing so tonight. This Sam Houston secondary is arguably a top 15-20 unit in the country, ranking top 10 in opponent completion percentage and top 15 in yards per pass allowed. However their rushing defense sucks, giving up 5.4 yards per carry, good for bottom 10 in the country.
As the favorite, look for New Mexico State to establish the run, and to have success doing so. Therefore giving James tons of chances to go over his number for us tonight.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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