FIFA World Cup Golden Boot: Updated Odds, Who to Back Going Forward?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Jul 09, 2026, 11:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
FIFA World Cup
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup heads into the quarterfinals, we are in a VERY tight race for one of the most prestigeous awards at this tournament: The Golden Boot. This trophy is given to the top goalscorer of the tournament, with a couple of tiebreakers put in place if necessary. We took some stabs early on for this award, and even reinvested prior to the knockout rounds. However, let's look at the updated odds, our current portfolio, and see if anyone is worth betting for this award right now!
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.
FIFA World Cup Golden Boot Betting Odds
Kylian Mbappe is looking to be the first back to back Golden Boot winner in World Cup history
Odds to Win the Golden Boot
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) +110
- Kylian Mbappe (France) +135
- Erling Haaland (Norway) +700
- Harry Kane (England) +800
- Ousmane Dembele (France) +4000
- Mikel Oyarzabal (Spain) +4000
As of this moment, that is what the Golden Boot oddsboard looks like. But let's take a look at where these players stand through five matches.
Current Goal Totals
- Lionel Messi: 8
- Kylian Mbappe: 7
- Erling Haaland: 7
- Harry Kane: 6
- Ousmane Dembele: 4
- Mikel Oyarzabal: 4
- Jude Bellingham: 4
Messi has a slight lead after scoring Argentina's equalizer against Egypt in the Round of 16. Now, before we look into who we should back, let's look at my personal portfolio.
Personal Golden Boot Pending Bets
- Lionel Messi (+175) 1u
- Harry Kane (+700) 0.5u
- Mikel Oyarzabal (+1400) 0.25u
- Ousmane Dembele (+3300) 0.25u
- Cristiano Ronaldo (+2200) 0.25u *Loss*
As you can see, we still have four players near the top of the board. The two we are rooting against are Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe. I did not expect Norway to make it this far, thus Haaland was not on my radar. I didn't intend to fade Mbappe, but it certainly worked out that way.
Here is how my personal bets would work out if each player won, factoring in the lost wagers as well.
- Messi: +0.5u
- Kane: +1.75u
- Oyarzabal: +1.75u
- Dembele: +6.25u
- Any Other Player: -2.25u
Obviously Dembele would be my biggest cash, but as long as one of these four players wins, we will walk away with some profit. But if I were looking to reinvest in this award at the current odds, it's an easy answer to me.
Lionel Messi has a one goal lead in the Golden Boot race, yet he is still priced at plus money
Best Bet: Lionel Messi to Win the Golden Boot (+110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Lionel Messi is still listed at plus money to win this award, despite being a goal ahead of the pack. Now, Mbappe has the first tiebreaker in his back pocket with more assists, but I also believe he has a tougher route to the finals. Plus, he has more teammates who could vulture goals from him in future matches. Messi has shown that he is the clear guy for Argentina.
He has literally scored in all five World Cup matches so far this tournament. Sure, he faces a Switzerland team that is likely to park the bus all match, but he will still have an "easier" route than Mbappe. I could see Morocco holding Mbappe scoreless tonight, and even if they get by, they'll likely face Spain, who has yet to allow a single goal.
It would not surprise me if Mbappe does not find the back of the net for the rest of the tournament, which would all but guarantee Messi wins this award, assuming England and possibly Argentina can keep Erling Haaland in check.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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