Japan vs. Sweden Picks and Predictions: June 25, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Jun 25, 2026, 10:21 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
FIFA World Cup
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-0.5
-112
2
+100u
-112
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+0.5
-104
2
-112o
+355
Japan and Sweden meet in Arlington tonight for their final match in Group F. As things currently stand, both Sweden and Japan are likely through to the Round of 32, as well as the Netherlands. However, the Dutch and Japanese have four points and a +4 goal differential, while Sweden sits with just 3 points and a goal differential of 0. Tonight, Japan faces Sweden in a match where they will need plenty of goals to top the group. Let's get into our favorite picks for this contest!
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks in different soccer leagues across the world.
Japan vs. Sweden FIFA World Cup Betting Insights
Viktor Gyökeres and Sweden might have their hands full tonight facing this motivated team from Japan
Sweden absolutely annihilated Tunisia in their opening match, winning 5-1. However, then they faced the Dutch, and were beat by that same score, thus eliminating any positive goal differential they had gained. Japan played the Netherlands to a tough 2-2 draw, coming back from down a goal twice in that match. Then they successfully beat up on Tunisia, winning 4-0.
Assuming Japan and the Netherlands both win, goal differential will decide the group. And if things are still tied, they will move to goals scored. Therefore, each team has tons of motivation to run up the score and leave no doubt, and I think the Japanese are capable of doing so.
Matchup Information – Japan vs. Sweden – June 25
- Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
- Date: Thursday, June 25, 2026
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX/Peacock
Japan vs. Sweden Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, as of June 25, 2026, at 9:50 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus as well as 50 slot spins immediately in your account and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Japan -110
- Draw +240
- Sweden +320
Spread
- Japan -0.5 (-110)
- Sweden +0.5 (-110)
Total
- Over 2.5 (-115)
- Under 2.5 (-105)
Japan vs. Sweden FIFA World Cup Picks
Ristu Doan and Japan could top the group tonight with a huge win over Sweden
Best Bet: Japan ML (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We have a Group F future on the Netherlands and Japan to finish top two in this group, regardless of the order. So we are rooting for a win tonight for both squads to seal that future. Plus I am going to double down because I have that much faith in Japan beating Sweden. The Swedish defense is so leaky.
Yes, they scored five against Tunisia, but when facing a legit World Cup contender, they fell flat. Sweden allowed 2.61 expected goals to the Dutch, including giving up seven shots on goals, which the Netherlands clearly converted. Japan will do the same thing. They are very technically sound on the back line, and are more than capable of containing the Swedish attack.
But the difference maker to me will be the Japanese offense against the Swedish back line. Japan made light work of Tunisia, winning 4-0 on the scoreboard, but they allowed just 0.05 expected goals, while creating 2.13 of their own. This is a match where Japan flexes their muscle and gets a positive result, but the Swedes have done enough to move on from this "Group of Death".
Prediction: Japan Wins 3-1 (+1200)
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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